Future Sustainability Program

Selected Projects

• UNEP GEO Process : SEI works to support efforts around the world to use scenarios to support long-term sustainability visioning and planning. We helped convene scenario exercises in the Caribbean (for five countries) and Honduras, and for North America as an input to the UNEP's GEO process, for which we are also helping develop scenario materials as part of the GEO capacity building initiative. SEI has also used scenario approaches for work in China the Mekong, and Ghana.
  

• Sustainable Urbanization in China: We have been contributing to SEI's work for the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development on its Sustainable Urbanization Project. Working in four thematic groups, (Governance, Migration, Regional growth, Environment/Resources), SEI has been responsible for creating an integrating scenario component, including scenario narratives and quantification. The scenarios are intended to help inform the discussion about development alternatives for China with a mid to long term perspective.
  

• Sustainable Development in West Africa: Working with our regional partner (ENDA-TM) we assessed sustainability issues in West Africa, and evaluated alternative scenarios. The first phase of activities culminated in a report entitled Sustainable Development in West Africa: Beginning the Process. The report assesses in considerable detail the current economic, social and environmental patterns in West African countries, and goes on to present a Conventional Development Scenario for the region, identify the tensions with sustainability goals, and suggests areas for strategic action.  

• Global Scenario Group: SEI convened the GSG in 1995 as a distinguished multinational and interdisciplinary group to develop scenarios of alternative long-range futures. The diversity of regional backgrounds and experience helped address the normative and integrated character of the sustainability problem. The group crafted scientifically-based scenarios that convey how world development could branch in contrasting directions, some desirable and some not.
  Web site: www.gsg.org 
  
• PoleStar: The PoleStar Project aims to advance the methods for making sustainability a practical basis for action. The PoleStar software is a comprehensive, flexible and easy-to-use tool for building and evaluating alternative development scenarios. PoleStar is an adaptable system for mounting economic, resource and environmental information, and for examining alternative development scenarios. PoleStar has been applied in global, regional and national applications, and is disseminated to sustainability practitioners.
  Web site: www.polestarproject.org
  
• Capacity Building in Vietnam: SEI-Boston provided PoleStar to the National Environmental Agency and other governmental bodies in Vietnam and conducted a training on its use in the Vietnam context. To facilitate the training, a database reflecting current environmental, social and economic accounts was provided along with a scenario under conventional development conditions. Trainees refined the data and went on to develop scenarios that examine appropriate policy strategies.
  
• Poverty and Growth: A study was prepared for the Environment Department of the World Bank that evaluated the poverty and environmental implications of alternative economic growth assumptions using the PoleStar system to generate scenarios. The study found that growth alone is not likely to meet poverty reduction goals, defined in the study as cutting hunger in half by the year 2025. At the same time, high growth futures will exacerbate environmental stress and uncertainty. The implication is that strategies to simultaneously meet reasonable social and environmental goals must include measures to improve distributional equity, not only between rich and poor countries, but also within countries.
  
• Baltic 21: The countries sharing the Baltic Sea joined together in a process to steer development in a sustainable direction. We were engaged to synthesize sectoral assessments into a holistic picture of the region today and, using PoleStar, provide forward-looking scenarios. A vision for sustainability in the region was also developed.
  
• Development Futures in Ecuador:  With local partner, Fundacion Futuro Latinoamericano, we examined current environmental and social issues and prepared scenarios of long-range development. The goal was to engage diverse stakeholders in a process of dialogue on the meaning of sustainability in the Ecuadorian context and the implications for policy.